It’s not like 2024 anymore….

In December 2024, one assessment of what to expect for 2025 stated that 2025 would likely resemble 2024, should the U.S. economy not crater and nukes don’t fly. With January not quite complete it is safe to say that the initial assessments of 2025 were wrong and that this is going to be a year of very dynamic change. Change will likely be at every level, in every industry – both public and private – and companies’ ability to navigate change will be tested this year.

When the word ‘change’ is mentioned, the immediate perception is that uncertainty is created. An environment filled with uncertainty is not what most small businesses desire to see, as invariably the bottom-line effect is negative for the business. Another way of looking at uncertainty is that  risk issues elevate, and risk management, being a fundamental skill to have as an entrepreneur and business owner, becomes more prominent. The more numerous the risk issues are, the more time and energy inputs are required to manage the elevated risk, which is a pure defensive strategy. The bottom-line analysis is that businesses do not earn income or generate profits from spending additional energy in risk management.

Risk Management

Risk management is not risk avoidance. Being an entrepreneur and business owner is one definition of risk acceptance. Knowing you have accepted risk as a condition of ownership should lead a person to learn how to manage the risk that is inherent in a business so that the best results are obtained from the labor and investment put into the business.

With the change of administration at the Federal level in January 2025, the dynamics of doing business has once again changed, just as it did in January 2021. The realization that Governmental Risk is ascendant at this time is being made obvious to all. Several reactive approaches to dealing with this change are apparent, but taking a proactive approach based on promoting your business’s capabilities and  value proposition is the one sure way to maneuver through the changes that are upon us all. 

How to Deal with This

As of the date this article is being written, the pace of change related to Governmental Risk dynamics is moving at a rapid pace, and this is causing anxiety on the part of many entrepreneurs. This is a normal reaction, but may not be definitive for the long term. As decisions regarding funding and spending programs are being made in a quick manner, it is likely that the resolution of the issues guiding the decisions will be made quickly as well. This is good news that the period of uncertainty we are currently in may be short-lived, at least until hard decisions are made and the inevitable litigation has run its course.  However, just as we have seen with the Corporate Transparency Act, one Court’s decision may not be the same as what an Appellate court may subsequently decide.

When you operate in an environment of uncertainty, you are obligated to provide your own certainty in counterbalance.

This is a perfect opportunity to perform a SWOT – the Strengths and Weaknesses you own from an internal view, and assess the Opportunities and Threats from outside forces on your business you experience or perceive are currently, or will be, in effect.

Other Ideas:

• Understand and use KPI’s – Key Performance Indicators – for your operations to assess the effectiveness and efficiencies you employ to achieve your desired results.
• Plan strongly for the intermediate and long-term.
• Craft goals and timelines for achieving them.
• Spend wisely and deliberately to achieve your documented strategic and operational goals.
• Remain aware of the issues as they rise and fall around you, but stay steadfast in your convictions of who you are, who your customers are, and where you want to be in future years.
• Elevate your satisfaction scores with your customers through strengthening your Value Proposition and your care services.

It is better to wait out this period of uncertainty in business rather than being out of business.

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Marshall Doak is the Director of the Southern Oregon University Small Business Development Center and a supporter of innovation and the community that forms around innovation in the economy. In private practice as owner of Managed Successions, LLC, he develops and manages projects for public and private organizations for specific goal achievement success, including advising businesses wanting to transfer ownership and retain the value created over time. He can be reached through: mdoak06@gmail.com or 541-646-4126.