Take a moment ………………………..

Take a few minutes and consider how well positioned your business is, what the likely growth trajectory is, and then assess your chances of remaining viable in the mid-term future. What do you see?              Do you see a clear pathway to continued success? What are your thoughts, are they untroubled or do you start seeing barriers in the road or issues arising that cloud the view? What is your impression of the amount of uncertainty you have? Over the next year, what is the most likely response to what you are seeing?

Do You Have a New or Young Business?

Eric Ries, author of ‘The Lean Startup’ in 2011, tells us: “A startup is a human institution designed to create a new product or service under conditions of extreme uncertainty”. Anyone who is engaged in a startup business accepts a substantial risk in doing so.

Startups and young businesses can be incredibly fun. Once a measure of stability is achieved, the common growth curve illustrates a robust ride up the elevator into prosperity. As a business grows and revenues increase, the thrill of building something larger than yourself which provides for you and your family and for your employees is unlike any other feeling. 

Looking at a Secure Future

At times, the feeling of building a certain future is a compelling reason to pursue self-employment and business development activities. Also, embracing uncertainty can be an invigorating feeling in itself. The University of Michigan Counseling and Psychological Services informs us that “Uncertainty is the result of having limited knowledge about an occurrence or event, making it difficult to control, plan, or predict a future outcome.” A lack of control over future outcomes can be a large stressor due to realizations of the risk levels in the development work. Introspection is a desirable characteristic of entrepreneurs and innovators to help mitigate the chaotic nature of risk elements.

Is Your Future Secure?

In all likelihood, you already know the answer to this question. If you have doubts about whether you have a firm answer, then STOP! and take a couple minutes to decide if you can arrive at one. In reality, if it takes you more than a single moment to arrive at an answer of Yes! I have a secure future, then in all likelihood, you are spending your time thinking about hurdles and obstacles, environmental roadblocks and pain points rather than visioning a clear pathway. If this is where your thoughts are, you are dealing with a lot of uncertainty that is holding you and your company back. If this is where you are, then know that this is a very human place to be, albeit an uncomfortable one, and developing a plan to deal with the uncertainty you face.

Back to Human Behavior…………………….

On a micro-scale, successful business people have an instinct for understanding who their customers are and all of the psychographics (the attitudes, preferences and habits of population segments) that describe their target markets. An understanding of your customers or target groups you may want to develop products and services for can be the difference between success or failure.                                                                     

On a larger scale other aspects of human behavior come into play when you look at the relationship between a business and society as a whole. When societal conditions are stable and predictable, the level of uncertainty decreases. Likewise, as conditions in the environment surrounding a business become increasingly unstable, the resulting levels of uncertainty rise.

Martin Armstrong is an international consultant and economist with deep experience in government, economics and the crossover with politics and has a track record of making accurate forecasts from his intellect and from the computer programs he has developed. In a recent podcast, he stated: “We are in a period of great uncertainty. . .. When people are uncertain, they don’t spend.  They save.  That’s what happens in a depression and a recession…”

Do you agree with this? Is this the experience you have in your business? There is no argument that conditions have greatly changed in the small business sector, especially during post-COVID times. The looming disruptions that are anticipated to be caused by the adoption of Artificial Intelligence in everyday business contribute an impression of uncertainty. The current pre-election political climate adds additional uncertainty for what the future business climate will be. How do these factors affect your decision-making processes?

After describing a number of political headwinds to innovation, Martin continues with “So, if you have no confidence in the future because of all this crazy stuff going on, what do you do?  You don’t borrow, and you pull back and say let me see what is going to happen.”

……………. And this human response to uncertainty is what wipes out hundreds of businesses each year.

Marshall Doak is the Director of the Southern Oregon University Small Business Development Center and a supporter of innovation and the community that forms around innovation in the economy. In private practice as owner of Managed Successions, LLC, he develops and manages projects for public and private organizations for specific goal achievement success, including advising businesses wanting to transfer ownership and retain the value created over time. He can be reached through: mdoak06@gmail.com or 541-646-4126.