The Enrollment Cliff and the Boomer Generation: A Confluence of Demographic Shifts

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By Jim Teece

The Institutions of Higher Education in the United States are bracing for a significant challenge known as the “Enrollment Cliff.” This phenomenon, characterized by a sharp decline in college enrollments starting around 2025, is primarily driven by demographic changes that began during the Great Recession.

Simultaneously, the Baby Boomer generation, the largest demographic cohort in U.S. history, is now expected to peak in 2030.

This article explores the correlation between these two demographic trends and their potential impact on higher education and the broader economy.

Understanding the Enrollment Cliff

The term “Enrollment Cliff” refers to the anticipated drop in college enrollments due to a decline in the number of high school graduates. According to a report, “The Hidden Cost of the Recession” and CDC data, This decline is rooted in the significant drop in birth rates during the Great Recession (2007-2009), which saw fertility rates plummet by nearly 23%. As a result, the number of college-age individuals will decrease sharply starting in 2025, with projections indicating a 15% drop in the college-going population between 2025 and 2029.

The Boomer Generation’s Peak

The Baby Boomer generation, born between 1946 and 1964, has been a dominant force in shaping the U.S. economy and society. As this cohort ages, it is expected to reach its peak in terms of societal impact around 2030. This peak will be marked by a significant increase in retirement rates, healthcare needs, and shifts in consumer behavior.

But there will be something else that has never happened in our nation’s history.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau report “The Graying of America: More older adults by 2035″ which was published in 2018, the number of people aged 65 and older in the United States will eventually outnumber children under 18, with this shift expected to happen around 2034, marking the first time in history where older adults will be more numerous than children.

New census data(2020) analyzed and published by ESRI in “Updated Age Data Reveal an Aging Population” is now showing that this will happen as soon as 2030, if not 2029.

Correlating the Trends

The convergence of the Enrollment Cliff and the Boomer generation’s peak presents a unique set of challenges and opportunities:

  1. Economic Implications: As Boomers retire, the workforce will shrink, potentially exacerbating labor shortages. The decline in college enrollments will further strain the talent pipeline, making it harder for businesses to find skilled workers.

    My assumption is that this will delay retirements as the boomers are incentivized to stay working. Even circling back into new careers with easier work loads and greater benefits such as premium healthcare will entice the boomers to stick around in the work force.

  2. Higher Education Funding: With fewer students enrolling, colleges and universities may face financial difficulties. This could lead to increased tuition rates, reduced program offerings, and even closures of some institutions.

    The business model will have to reboot. Mergers will happen. Layoffs will occur.

  3. Healthcare and Social Services: The aging Boomer population will drive up demand for healthcare and social services. This increased demand will require a well-educated workforce, particularly in healthcare fields. However, the Enrollment Cliff may limit the availability of trained professionals. So there is a paradox forming.

    We will adopt AI like we did telework during the pandemic to pick up the workload. We will retrain all the laid off educators to be health care professionals.

  4. Innovation and Adaptation: Institutions that can adapt to these demographic shifts by offering flexible learning options, targeting non-traditional students, and leveraging technology will be better positioned to thrive. Additionally, businesses that invest in training and development to up-skill their existing workforce can mitigate some of the impacts of these demographic changes.

    We will also use technology to assist the aging worker and mask traditional issues that may appear as a burden to today’s workforce.

Making it through the Intersection alive

The intersection of the Enrollment Cliff and the Boomer generation’s peak represents a critical juncture for the U.S. economy and higher education system. By understanding and addressing these demographic trends, policymakers, educators, and business leaders can develop strategies to navigate the challenges and seize the opportunities presented by this confluence of demographic shifts.

I plan on spending as much time as I can, on this intersection, planning, preparing, plotting and poised.

In the same way people watch AI with the anticipation that it’s the next “internet”, I plan on closely watching the intersection and finding ways to survive and thrive my way through it while dodging all the pileups and rear-ends that are sure to litter the side of the road on all sides of it.

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