By Jim Teece

I recently saw a video clip of Donald Trump from 1988 where he was on the Oprah Winfrey show, and he shared his thoughts on tariffs. His ideas then are what we are seeing him play out now, in his second term as President of the United States, some 37 years later. He mentions Japan because that was the big leader then, but it’s now China and Korea. Japan has sadly fallen by the wayside.

I’m hoping you and I can step back and look at this topic objectively. Let’s leave our political feelings in our breast pocket. Let’s talk about the impact the new tariffs will have on all Oregon Small Businesses.

What is the economic impact of stiff tariffs on our Oregon businesses now that we are a global economy?

In 1988 we were not yet a global ecomony. We were on the cusp and the fear was there. Mr. Trump spoke to those fears back then.

We were becoming one. So the idea of controlling this change and keeping manufacturing in the United States made a lot of sense back then. What he said resonated with many people back then. People feared a future where we did not make most of the goods and services we used.

But his words and the concerns of all the factory workers and unions did not stop the reality from happening, and I submit that it started gaining traction the following year.

1989 was the year that globalization and geopolitics gained traction.

• This is the year that the Berlin Wall came down and the year of Germany’s reunification.
• It marked the end of the Cold War.
• The Nintendo Game Boy came out, and just like that, computing mobility became a thing.
• It’s the year that the World Wide Web was invented.
• India shifted its government and focused on educating its people. This allowed for outsourcing and employment globalization to occur.

And looking back at my own professional life, it’s been a wild ride. I work with customers and clients all over the world. I have an employee in Portugal.

But the truth is that is has been a wild ride for all of us.

We can now order a high-quality, high-tech device made in China by highly skilled labor, have it custom-made(engraving and colors), and delivered in a couple of days. I’m not talking about a piece of “Made in China” junk, but the most powerful computer we all own, carry in our pockets, hold in our hands and use to do everything everyday from doom scrolling, reading, playing games, listening to audiobooks, connecting with family and friends and watching your investments soar and tank (sometimes on the same day) and so much more, including very rarely actually making a phone call.

We can also order very cheap things made in China on Amazon and have them shipped to our door in a day or two, depending on where you live. Southern Oregon just got one-day delivery, and wow, that is amazing.

So, which hat should we wear when we think about tariffs? As a consumer, I’m already complaining about the cost of eggs, dinner out, spam at Costco, and housing. What will these tariffs do to my consumer habits and the habits of my customers? This is what keeps me up at night.

But I also think about my business. I can tell you there is now at least one meeting on my calendar per day (the other day there were 4) where we discuss tariffs and the impact on my small businesses.

Of the 6 small businesses I own, every single one of them will be negatively impacted by tariffs eventually. Right now, it’s the opposite of course, because the fear of tariffs has caused customers to pre-order everything that is already on shore (pre-tariff) so small businesses are actually benefiting from fear hoarding. But what happens in 3 months? or 6? I fear a major slowdown. A deep recession. This is what keeps me up at night.

That’s the part that has me nervous. Will my museum customers who order millions of dollars worth of mugs and magnets from me still order what they ordered last year if my cost has doubled.

Will my internet customer not choose me because I had to double the price of equipment installed or raise my monthly service fee to offset the doubled price just so I can get a ROI in 24 months.

I’m not sure what extreme tariffs will solve, but I do think it will impact us all.

It reminds me of 2007 and the great recession. Interest rates fell to zero soon after. Many community banks failed. In Southern Oregon, only one was left standing. People’s Bank survived because of smart people running the business, making hard decisions as fast as possible, and having the tenacity to ride out the storm. Their business model changed overnight, and they found ways to not only survive but also thrive as the smoke cleared and the rebuilding happened.

That’s what each of us needs to be doing right now. Don’t panic. Make smart decisions, no matter how hard they are, and stay tenacious.

One thing I learned from each of the down cycles I have been through over the last 30 plus years of running my own businesses. Cash is king and debt will drown you if you get behind, so don’t get behind and keep your head above water.

I’ll see you on the other side.

The state published information about tariffs impact on Oregon at https://www.oregon.gov/biz/programs/Export/trade/Pages/default.aspx and