Forecast of Aviation Demand

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Forecasts of aviation activity are used to identify expected activity levels and based aircraft at individual airports in the system.

A statewide perspective on aviation activity also affords the opportunity to examine the context for changes at Oregon airports. Where individual master plans or Airport Layout Plans (ALPs) look in detail at the local situation, the system plan offers the view from 30,000 feet. This makes it possible to look at regional and statewide trends that are resulting not only in absolute gains or declines at particular airports, but also changes that come from redistribution of activity.

The last system plan forecasts had a base year of 2005. This forecast starts with the base year of 2015(1) and estimates changes in the next 20 years from 2015 through 2035. The following components of aviation activity are considered in the forecasts:

• Commercial airline enplanements
• General aviation based aircraft
• Total commercial, general aviation, and military operations

Scope of Aviation Activity in Southern Oregon
Seven commercial service airports and 90 general aviation airports comprise the Oregon system. Oregon’s economy reflects a rich diversity of economic activity in the state that includes both high tech and natural and agricultural resource industries. During the past three decades, Oregon made the transition from a resource- based economy to a more mixed manufacturing and marketing economy, with an emphasis on high technology. Oregon’s hard times of the early 1980s signaled basic changes had occurred in traditional resource sectors— timber, fishing, and agriculture— and the state and industry worked to develop new economic sectors to replace older ones. Most important, perhaps, was the state’s growing high-tech sector, which centered in the three counties around Portland. However, rural Oregon counties were generally left out of the shift to a new economy.

Population in Oregon is concentrated in a growing metropolitan area that spans from Portland and the Willamette Valley along Interstate 5 as far south as Eugene. It is on this corridor that the largest concentration of commercial air service activity and general aviation operations take place. Not surprisingly, since population correlates directly with aviation activity, Oregon’s population is also concentrated in Oregon Department of Transportation’s (ODOT) Connect Oregon Regions 1 and 2 where 75 percent of the state’s population reside.

(1) Based aircraft forecasts were updated to 2017 due to revised FAA based aircraft figure

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